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Australia Raises Wheat Forecast on East Coast Rains

Colin Packham
June 14, 2017 | 9:00 pm
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Piles of harvested wheat are covered with plastic sheets near the depot for GrainCorp, Australia's largest listed bulk grain handler, located in the New South Wales town of Burren Junction, north-west of Sydney, on March 15, 2017.  (Reuters Photo/David Gray)
Piles of harvested wheat are covered with plastic sheets near the depot for GrainCorp, Australia's largest listed bulk grain handler, located in the New South Wales town of Burren Junction, north-west of Sydney, on March 15, 2017. (Reuters Photo/David Gray)

Sydney. Australia slightly raised its forecast for 2017-2018 wheat production on Wednesday (14/06) as favorable weather along the country's east coast looks set to boost output from the world's number four exporter.

Australian wheat production is expected to total 24.19 million tons, the Australian Bureau of Agriculture, Resource Economics and Rural Sciences (Abares) said, up nearly 1 percent from its March forecast of 23.98 million tons.

The uptick could provide a headwind for benchmark global prices, which hit a one-month high last week on concerns about potential production losses to US spring wheat production.

Still, Australian production is returning to average levels after output soared to a record 35.13 million tons last season, led by bumper production from Western Australian following near perfect conditions.

Much of the increase in the 2017-2018 forecast will come from the country's east coast, the bureau said, after heavy downpours between March and June aided soil moisture, boosting the prospects of fledgling crops.

Strong east coast production is a potential boon for GrainCorp, Australia's largest listed bulk grain handler, amid a rush for high protein supplies.

Global prices for higher protein wheat have risen in the wake of recent adverse weather that has affected production of US spring wheat.

Australia's east coast, where GrainCorp enjoys a dominant market position, is the country's only high-protein producer.

Unlike last season, heavy rains this year have arrived in a timely manner. East coast production soared last season but late rains led to a quality downgrade, reducing the exportable surplus of high quality crops.

The brighter outlook for east coast production is in contrast to conditions on the west coast, Australia's largest grain producing region.

Production from Western Australia is expected to total 8.5 million tons during the 2017-2018 season, down 15 percent from last year and behind a five-year average.

The bureau said 2017-2018 canola production will total 3.32 million tons, down from its March forecast of 3.69 million tons.

Reuters

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