Andrew Hammond: Obama's New Resolve in Tackling Climate Change i

US President Barack Obama has released the American Clean Power Plan setting environmental rules and regulations to decrease pollution in order to reduce overall US carbon dioxide emissions. (AFP Photo/Saul Loeb)

By : Andrew Hammond | on 10:21 AM August 04, 2015
Category : Opinion, Columns

US President Barack Obama released on Monday the most comprehensive action ever taken by the United States to tackle climate change with sweeping emission cuts on the power sector. Known as the American Clean Power Plan, it will set environmental rules and regulations to decrease pollution from power plants, which account for some 40 percent of US emissions of carbon dioxide, in an attempt to reduce overall such US emissions by 32 percent from 2005 levels by 2030.

The initiative, which has been backed by Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, will face significant political and legal opposition, and is especially likely to be rowed back if a Republican candidate wins the 2016 presidential election. While the plan does not require approval of the US Congress, more than a dozen state attorneys general, alongside coal and power companies, are preparing lawsuits against the scheme, and Republican Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, has urged governors across the country not to comply with the plan.

The timing of Obama’s announcement reflects the fact that his presidential legacy on this issue is at stake, and also that the landmark United Nations summit on climate change takes place this December, where a new post Kyoto global warming agreement is intended to be agreed upon. The urgency of this issue for Obama has also been heightened by the release in 2013 of a biennial US Government Accountability Office’s (GAO) review which included climate change for the first time ever in its “high risk list.” The GAO asserted that climate change presents a “significant financial risk,” and asserted that Washington needs a “government-wide strategic approach with strong leadership” in response.

In the coming weeks, Obama will follow through on his announcement by visiting Alaska to highlight the impact of global warming. Moreover, he will also host a visit by Pope Francis at the White House in which they are anticipated to launch a collective call for action on climate change.

The increased resolve of the Obama administration on global warming will be welcomed by many across the world, and comes during a period when it may seem hard not to be pessimistic about the global battle to tackle climate change. However, far from this being the hopeless situation some depict, these developments taken by the United States underline that we may be reaching a point when the international tide decisively turns on tackling global warming.

To be sure, much more needs to be done, including in the United States. But if one steps back and examines what is happening at national and sub-national levels across the world, a relatively positive picture is emerging.

That is, domestic laws and regulations to address climate change are being passed at an increasing rate -- in stark contrast to the progress in recent years in international negotiations. In a report published in May by the Grantham Institute at the London School of Economics, it was revealed that there are over 800 climate change laws and policies now in places across the world, rising from 54 in 1997. Indeed, since 1997, when the Kyoto Protocol was agreed, the number of climate laws and policies has doubled every five years.

Approximately half of those (398) were passed by the legislative branch, and half (408) by the executive branch, such as policies and decrees. 46 new laws and policies were passed in 2014 alone, compared with 82 in 2013.

This is potentially nothing less than game-changing and reflects developments in both the industrialized and developing world, across every continent of the globe. For instance, China’s 12th Five-Year Plan is the clearest signal yet about Beijing’s intent on the climate, clean air and energy agendas.

The plan sets a strategic direction for China’s economy and underlines that there appears added determination to change the country’s development model from low-grade labor-intensive manufacturing towards a greater emphasis on services and innovation. The Five-Year Plan includes policies and measures designed to help China achieve a 40 percent to 45 percent reduction in the carbon intensity of GDP from 2005 levels by 2020. While this is a mammoth ambition that may not be fully realized, it is expected to be underpinned as a political commitment in Beijing’s first national climate change law.

Indeed, it is mainly developing countries, which will provide the motor of global economic growth in coming decades, which are leading this drive toward tackling climate change. Many are concluding it is in their national interest to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by embracing low-carbon growth and development, and to better prepare for the impact of global warming.

They see that expanding domestic sources of renewable energy not only reduces emissions but also increases energy security by reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels. Reducing energy demand through greater efficiency reduces costs and increases competitiveness. Improving resilience to the impacts of climate change also makes economic sense.

It follows, therefore, that advancing domestic climate legislation and regulations, and experiencing the co-benefits of reducing emissions, is a crucial building block to help create the political conditions to enable a comprehensive, global climate agreement to be reached. Domestic laws give clear signals about the direction of policy, reducing uncertainty, particularly for the private sector.

With negotiations on a post 2020 comprehensive global deal scheduled to conclude in December, an agreement, with the necessary ambition, is more likely to be reached with domestic frameworks, like the one Obama has announced, in place in key countries. Sound domestic actions enhance the prospects of international action, and better international prospects enhance domestic actions.

Given this outlook, and as difficult international climate negotiations approach in December, a danger is that some countries might lower their long-term ambition. At a time when the climate change debate is undergoing such change, this would be ill-timed. Indeed, as in the United States with Obama’s plan, now is the right time to invest more in tackling global warming, in order to help expedite conditions that will enable a comprehensive new treaty in December.

Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS (the Center for International Affairs, Diplomacy and Strategy) at the London School of Economics and a former UK government special adviser.

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