Jakarta. The global price of coal is projected to top $400 per ton until early next year amid geopolitical uncertainties triggered by the ongoing war in Ukraine, an analyst has said.

According to Newcastle coal futures, coal price was closed at $401 per ton on Friday for December shipment, more than 150 percent from last year’s level.

The bullish trend will continue until early 2023 amid soaring demands from European countries during the winter and embargoes on Russia’s energy supplies, said Girta Yoga, a lead researcher with Jakarta-based Research & Development ICDX.

In addition to growing demands, supplies from major producers like Indonesia and Australia are disrupted by the rainy season, he said.

“The current situation indicates a bullish trend in coal demand until the end of the year, and even early next year,” Yoga said.

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The prospect of an energy crisis and the approaching winter has boosted coal demands from the European Union. According to the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the value of coal export to the EU soared to $161.7 million in September from just $92 million a month earlier.

Also in September, Indonesia’s coal export to the Netherlands stood at $55.6 million from zero in August. Coal export to Poland, which shares a land border with war-torn Ukraine, jumped by 95 percent to $63 million.

Coal and mineral resources have increasingly become a key revenue source for Indonesia, contributing Rp 124 trillion ($8 billion) in tax and export duties to the state revenue in 2021.

Coal is also a leading factor for Indonesia’s 31-month run of international trade surpluses, which has never happened in its history.

BPS data indicate that the country saw a surplus of nearly $15 billion in international trade in the third quarter of the year, in which coal export was valued at $13.3 billion.