Jakarta. Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo is the only potential candidate for the 2024 presidential election who enjoys a two-digit surge in support since March of last year, according to a new poll released on Sunday.

Over the last 20 months, his standing has gained 10.5 points to 16.6 percent when voters were asked to name their candidate independently, according to a survey by Saiful Mujani Research & Consulting (SMRC).

President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo remains a favorite figure among voters although his support has slipped by 1.3 points to 13.9 percent which puts him second. However, the incumbent won’t be able to join the race because of the Constitution’s presidential term limit.

The support for Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto has been stagnant at 13.4 percent since last March, putting him at serious risk of being outperformed by former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan.

Anies saw his support rise by 6.7 points to 12.1 percent as he inches closer to surpassing Prabowo. The National Democratic Party (Nasdem) has officially picked Anies as a presidential candidate but the party needs to forge a coalition to meet the threshold of 20 percent of seats in the House of Representatives to put him on the ballot.

With no firm candidate until registration is open next year, “the most inclusive measurement to detect the support for a presidential candidate is by conducting an open simulation in which respondents were asked to name their choice for president freely and spontaneously,” SMRC said.

In a hypothetical race of three eligible front-runners, Ganjar gets most of the votes with 33.5 percent, leading by 3.4 points from Prabowo and by a further 8.4 points from Anies. 

Under this scenario, there is still 11.3 percent of voters who remain undecided, meaning that the 2024 winner is very likely to be decided by a runoff because the elected president must win a simple majority of popular votes.

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When compared to the same poll conducted last month, the support for Anies dropped by 0.9 points, while his two rivals enjoyed a slight increase of 2.6 points for Prabowo and 1.4 points for Ganjar.

But Ganjar’s support has been on a steady rise since March in contrast to the fluctuating trend for Prabowo and Anies. 

Ganjar’s overall favorability has been higher than that of any other potential candidates in the last 20 months. The survey indicated that 89 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Ganjar, compared to 76 percent for Prabowo, 75 percent for Anies, 64 percent for Chief Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto, and 45 percent for House Speaker Puan Maharani.

Puan Maharani
Among the three front-runners, Ganjar is the only one who hasn’t been officially picked as a candidate by any party, including the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) of which he is a party executive,

Many have speculated that PDI-P Chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri, the country’s first female president, wants to nominate her daughter Puan.

The House speaker has been aggressively campaigning on social media platforms but the SMRC survey indicated that she would get only 3.4 percent of the votes in a hypothetical race against the three front-runners.

Prabowo, who has been nominated by his Great Indonesian Movement Party (Gerindra), would win the presidency without needing a runoff if Ganjar and Anies do not participate, SMRC said.

President Jokowi, also a PDI-P executive, implicitly expressed his support for Ganjar during a rally in Jakarta on Saturday.

He told thousands of supporters that the future leader who puts people above all else is physically recognizable.

“Take a look at his hair -- if it’s fully white then he must be the person who keeps thinking of the people,” Jokowi said, apparently making reference to silver-haired Ganjar. 

The SMRC poll is conducted from November 5-13 involving 1,220 eligible voters across the country. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. 

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