Is Wind Farm Development in Low-Wind Regions a High-Stakes Gamble?

Agus Hasan
July 6, 2024 | 11:43 am
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A wind turbines turning in the wind at the Sere Wind farm, close to Vredendal, about 350 km from Cape Town. (AFP PHOTO / RODGER BOSCH)
A wind turbines turning in the wind at the Sere Wind farm, close to Vredendal, about 350 km from Cape Town. (AFP PHOTO / RODGER BOSCH)

To achieve energy security and meet the net-zero emissions target by 2060 set by the Indonesian government, wind energy can play a crucial role in reducing reliance on fossil fuels. However, Indonesia's location along the equator generally results in low wind potential, with exceptions in regions such as South Sulawesi, Nusa Tenggara Timur, and the South Coast of Papua.

Current state-of-the-art wind turbines are designed for high wind potential areas like the North Sea, where the average wind speed at 100 meters exceeds 10 m/s. These turbines typically feature large capacities and longer blades, such as the 15 MW Siemens Gamesa turbine with a 236-meter rotor. They have a cut-in speed of 4 m/s and a cut-out speed of around 32 m/s. The rated power region in the power curve generally begins at 11 m/s. In contrast, the average wind speed in Indonesia ranges from 3 to 6 m/s, whereas an excellent wind site requires an average of at least 7 m/s. This disparity raises questions about the viability of wind farm development in Indonesia.

Understanding the Major Challenges

The future of energy resources hinges not only on sustainability and affordability but also on reliability. Even though the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for wind energy has significantly decreased in recent decades, wind energy is inherently intermittent. This means it is not constantly available or predictable, which impacts grid stability. Grid operators must use balancing mechanisms to match supply with demand at any given time. In Europe, gas turbines are often used for balancing power. Consequently, adding more wind turbines also necessitates adding more gas turbines, which undermines the sustainability of wind energy if the balancing power relies on fossil fuels. Another option to stabilize the grid is through energy storage, but large-scale energy storage systems are expensive to build. To measure reliability, grid operators use the parameter loss of load expectation (LOLE), which indicates the probability of a loss of load event over a specific planning horizon. In the US, the target LOLE value is 2.4 hours per year, implying one outage day every ten years. In regions with low wind speeds like Indonesia, wind energy appears to be neither sustainable nor reliable.

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Germany's energy transition policy, Die Energiewende, highlights the challenges of replacing baseload power with intermittent resources like wind and solar. Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), called Germany’s decision to prematurely close nuclear plants a historic mistake. Germany now imports nuclear-generated energy from France. Replacing baseload power with intermittent sources has demonstrated significant technical and economic challenges.

A recent study by TU Delft shows that the most economically feasible wind farm locations are offshore. This makes sense due to stronger winds in offshore areas. However, offshore wind farms are three times more expensive to build because of the complexity of construction and installation. They are also more expensive to operate, requiring specialized vessels for maintenance. Although offshore wind is a mature technology, floating wind farm technology, which is available for water depths exceeding 60 meters, has its drawbacks. For example, the first commercial floating wind farm, the Hywind Scotland, had to be towed to Norway for heavy maintenance. This process is time-consuming, costly, and shows that floating wind is unreliable.

The Opportunities

Developing wind turbines for low-speed regions presents significant opportunities for research and development. One potential solution is to design smaller capacity turbines, in the range of 2-3 MW, with significantly longer blades. This configuration can ensure that the power curve is steep enough to achieve the rated capacity at lower wind speeds. However, this design also shortens the rated power region, meaning the turbine will operate at its optimal capacity over a narrower range of wind speeds. Further research is needed to optimize blade length, turbine height, and other factors to maximize efficiency and energy output in low-wind conditions. Additionally, advancements in materials and aerodynamic designs could enhance the performance and durability of these turbines, making them more viable for widespread deployment in regions with low wind speeds.

Another promising opportunity is to utilize wind power for power-to-hydrogen processes, producing green hydrogen, which is essential for decarbonizing the transport sector. Beyond cars, hydrogen is being used to fuel ships and trains. Large-scale development of hydrogen production is currently underway, and it is projected that this will eventually make green hydrogen cost competitive. By integrating wind energy with hydrogen production, we can create a sustainable energy cycle that reduces dependence on fossil fuels and lowers carbon emissions across multiple transportation modes. Furthermore, advancements in electrolysis technology and infrastructure development for hydrogen storage and distribution are critical areas for ongoing research and investment.

In the wind energy value chain, significant job creation is expected across various sectors. This includes roles such as turbine technicians, engineers, component manufacturers, project developers, and financial analysts, among others. Each stage of the wind energy lifecycle, from design and manufacturing to installation, maintenance, and operation, will generate diverse employment opportunities. Engineers and technicians will be essential for the design, assembly, and upkeep of wind turbines, while component manufacturers will produce the necessary parts and materials. Project developers will oversee the planning and execution of wind farm projects, and financial analysts will evaluate and manage the economic aspects.

The Verdict

The increasing demand for renewable energy necessitates a diverse array of clean energy resources. Wind energy, as one of the key low-carbon solutions, plays an essential role in the energy mix. However, its overall contribution may be relatively minor in low-wind regions. Additionally, the sustainability and reliability of wind energy pose challenges, particularly due to the need for balancing power, making large-scale deployment a high-stakes gamble. This necessitates extensive consideration of technological and economic aspects, as the effectiveness of wind farms in such areas is uncertain. Government support, in the form of subsidies, is crucial to boost wind energy investments, but these subsidies must be carefully calibrated to avoid dependency. Sustainable growth in the wind energy sector will depend on strategic policymaking, ongoing technological advancements, and balanced financial incentives to ensure long-term viability and integration into the broader energy landscape.

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Agus Hasan is a professor in cyber-physical systems at the Department of ICT and Natural Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)

The views expressed in this article are those of the author.

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