Jakarta. State-owned toll road operator Jasa Marga expects around 3.5 million vehicles to leave Jakarta during the 2026 Lebaran homecoming exodus, with the peak outbound traffic projected on March 18, according to estimates prepared jointly with the Transport Ministry.

Jasa Marga President Director Rivan A. Purwantono said the company has begun preparing mitigation measures as vehicle flows are expected to surge in the coming days, supported by an extended holiday period.

“As of March 10, we have continued making various preparations to anticipate the movement of around 3.5 million vehicles leaving Jakarta. The figure is the result of identification and projections conducted by Jasa Marga together with the Transport Ministry’s Transportation Policy Agency,” Rivan said during a media briefing at the Jasa Marga Tollroad Command Center in Jatiasih, Bekasi, on Tuesday.

Based on the projection, traffic volumes are expected to start increasing this weekend, while the return flow peak is forecast on March 24, or three days after Lebaran (H+3).

Of the estimated 3.5 million vehicles leaving Jakarta, about 28% are expected to head toward Merak, 50% eastward via the Trans Java and Cipularang toll networks, and around 20% toward Bogor.

Rivan said the largest traffic concentration is expected in the eastbound direction, where roughly 57% of vehicles will continue toward the Trans Java Toll Road, while 42% are projected to head toward the Cipularang Toll Road.

“Congestion usually occurs around Km 66, as most vehicles are heading toward Trans Java,” Rivan said.

Jasa Marga has also observed an early rise in traffic volumes ahead of the holiday season. Data as of H-19 before Lebaran showed traffic already trending higher than normal levels. Traffic between H-26 and H-20 before Lebaran increased 3.26% compared with normal conditions, and was 4.15% higher than the same period last year.

“This trend usually begins to appear around H-22 before Lebaran,” Rivan said.

The company has also identified several factors that could increase the risk of traffic accidents, particularly those involving non-class I vehicles such as freight trucks. As a result, restrictions on freight vehicle operations will be implemented to improve travel safety during the homecoming period.

Meanwhile, the government estimates that 143.91 million people will travel nationwide during the 2026 Lebaran holiday season.

Transport Minister Dudy Purwagandhi said the massive surge in mobility has prompted authorities to strengthen transport safety measures across all modes.

“Public safety during the Lebaran transportation period must be the top priority. I have instructed all units within the Transport Ministry to carry out ramp checks consistently and in accordance with procedures, ensuring that all operating transportation facilities are truly roadworthy,” Dudy said.

According to the ministry’s projection, Central Java remains the top destination for travelers this year, with an estimated 38.71 million people heading to the province.

To ensure readiness, the ministry has conducted extensive safety inspections across transportation sectors.

In land transportation, ramp checks have been conducted on 27,664 buses since Feb. 23, with 17,516 units declared roadworthy, while the rest received repair warnings or traffic violation penalties.

In the maritime sector, inspections have been completed on 832 vessels out of 840 ships prepared for the Lebaran transportation period. In ferry transport, 220 ships have been inspected out of a total fleet of 254 vessels.

For aviation, authorities have inspected 372 aircraft out of 564 planes, while in the railway sector, 3,672 units of rolling stock have been inspected from a total of 3,687 units.

Dudy emphasized that transport operators must ensure their fleets meet strict safety standards.

“All public transportation must guarantee passenger safety and provide optimal service, so that people feel safe and comfortable during their homecoming trips,” he said.

The government is also encouraging travelers to take advantage of the free homecoming transport program organized by the ministry.

As of March 5, 15,550 people had registered for free bus transport, nearly filling the 15,834-passenger quota.

For the motorcycle transport program using trucks, 172 motorcycles have registered out of the 240-unit quota.

Meanwhile, the Motorcycle Free Transport (Motis) program using trains has recorded 9,529 motorcycles registered out of a quota of 11,900 units, with 18,382 people signed up for the program. The ministry has also allocated 69,232 passenger seats for free sea transport routes, with 5,933 people registering on the first day of enrollment.